1. Inventory & Market Balance
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Coastal Orange County—much like the region at large—continues to contend with tight inventory, with particularly limited supply in highly desirable coastal neighborhoods. Inventory
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While listings have increased modestly, growth remains much stronger inland; coastal areas still hover around 2.5 to 3 months of supply, keeping competition elevated. Market Supply
2. Price Trends & Appreciation
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Median home prices remain near all-time highs, with March 2025 figures around $1.2M, on par with spring 2024 peaks. Price Trends
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Year-over-year price appreciation has cooled significantly: about 4.6% growth in 2025 compared to much sharper gains in previous years (13.1% in 2024, 22.5% in 2021).
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Zillow data also indicate modest gains—roughly 2–3% year-over-year—with homes pending in about 20 days. Price Trends
3. Buyer Demand & Market Activity
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Buyer interest is gradually returning—especially as interest rates dip into the mid–6% range.
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In OC overall, inventory has risen ~11% in a short span; demand is up ~6%, the strongest since May 2023.
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Homes priced under $2M, especially those staged well, are still moving quickly—often within 30–40 days on market.
4. Broader Market Cycle & Expectations
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Analysts note we’re still inside a multi-year housing downturn cycle—with declines in 2023 and 2024—and anticipate a recovery beginning in 2026.
Summary — What to Expect This Fall (Autumn 2025)
| Factor | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Inventory | Modestly increasing but still tight in coastal areas |
| Prices | Holding steady near peak levels; appreciation remains modest |
| Buyer Behavior | Returning interest with strategic purchases on properly priced homes |
| Timing | No dramatic shifts expected before 2026 recovery |
For Sellers: Seasonal slowdowns may offer a slight window—pricing and presentation are key. Homes under $2M that are staged effectively can still attract strong attention.
For Buyers: This may be one of your better opportunities—more listings are emerging, rates are slightly lower, and demand is still measured. Be ready to move decisively when appealing properties surface.
Overall, the coastal Orange County market this fall looks stable with subtle shifts: minimal price movement, gradual easing of tight supply, and emerging buyer engagement—but with continued premium on preparation.
If you'd like a breakdown by specific cities (e.g., Laguna Beach vs. Dana Point) or property types (condos, single-families, luxury estates), I'd be happy to dive deeper! Give me a call @ (949) 395-8408 & www.siriannirealestate.com. Thanks, Chris Sirianni
